Deutsche Telekom, Telstra and G9

are the names of the likely pariticipants in the bidding process for a new FTTN network.

I believe only one will emerge as the eventual winner, unfortunately.

Unless the Taskforce take note of Deutsche Telekom’s idea of a public / private partnership and therefore do something of what Labor is offering, that is, a Public / Private funded FTTN network, which will stretch into more areas (and hopefully mine while it is at it), the likely winner is going to be either Telstra, or None at all.

I don’t doubt the Deutsche Telekom’s or G9’s capabilities, but when I look at this honestly, I don’t see them emerging as clear leaders due to the issues faced with getting access to Telstra’s copper network, and as is evident by OPEL and Coonan’s court case, Telstra are going to do whatever it takes to stop Australia from obtaining affordable, faster broadband internet access.

Telstra will tie up in court whatever it can, simply because its cheaper to spend $1 million and delay the inevitable, rather than face up to it and work together to create something that might benefit them, the same, less or better than they already benefit.
They don’t care about consumers at all. They care about profits. Lots of them.

Court cases are investments to them. Spend $1 million, and as a result of delaying the end outcome (which doesn’t change, ie, OPEL build), Telstra end up making a further $500 million.

On the other hand, by not delaying it, and things speeding along, Telstra stand to lose $50 million plus.

Not happy, are they?

So, the same logic applied to FTTN’s Expert Taskforce. Basically delay it and force it past the ACCC. Delay it and force it past as much of the process as possible.

And in a last effort attempt, the Expert Taskforce has a few delays set to it as well, but essentially, they want to win this one.

So the proposal from Telstra will be a “sensible” proposal, one which will compete strongly against the other two, one which will outline that they won’t put themselves through nonsense legal action to delay deployment plans, one which will outline that they will provide services, and the price? You bet it’s going to be much more competitive than the $59 that can be heard in the media.

Telstra have too much to lose by losing FTTN.

It’s the start of FTTH, and FTTH is the start of the future of fixed communications (where most of our communications occur).

Telstra will lose out on a trillion dollars or more. Litterally, the profit line they depend on will disappear.

Sure, FTTN might still see Telstra make profits off the aging copper, but there’ll be a time on that deployment, where FTTH will instead take off and Telstra will start not making an income off that copper, and they’ll be stuck with nothing in the fixed area except resale services off the infrastructure provider of FTTN / FTTH.

They don’t want to lose that. I know Telstra is maintained and managed by complete idiots with a extreme desire for greed, even if it holds consumers from getting access to services that were and are taxpayer funded (still a stack of Broadband Connect exchanges and HiBis exchanges on Telstra’s lists).

FTTN and FTTH will mean too much to them. The entry point is now, because in 15 years, the established company will be whoever does FTTN and starts FTTH from FTTN.

Telstra’s losses here will be huge if they be dumb and try and hold strong on price. The other providers, should they end up winning, will obviously endure and engage the fight with Telstra for access to the network and eventually win, and the end result is Telstra loses out.

For them to win, not just now but into the future, they need to build FTTN. And anyone with half a brain should see them come down rather steep on price to avoid any chances of losing out to Deutsche Telekom or G9 on what is Telstra’s very own future.


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